Why winning the Iran War hasn’t convinced Israelis that Netanyahu should continue his rule, and how that could influence his decision to go for a regional agreement
Thank you Robert, I hear you. 30% of Israelis agree with you. The rest have consistently over the past two years polled that they would like him replaced as Prime Minister. Which is what I’ve cited here as the reasons for why we can expect his Swan Song.
Barring Netanyahu's departure and replacement with a PM far more conscious of Israel's relationships with the rest of the world, Israel will be facing a long-term political defeat that will more than eclipse the seeming military gains it has achieved recently.
One should be clear that whether Zohran Mamdani's NYC Democratic mayoral primary win presents an immediate threat to New York's Jews, it presents an existential challenge to American Jewry. It means there's a better-than-likely chance that whoever wins the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination will do so on an actively anti-Zionist platform. And that will force American Jewry to have to choose between aligning itself with fascism or anti-Zionism.
Thank you, Ariel. I always read your essays with interest because they are honest. Your essays are consistent, unbiased and devoid of illusory ideas.
That's why it is always easy for me to understand what you mean, rather than guessing the hidden meanings that many critics of the current government hide behind beautiful words.
I agree with your main message. The time for Netanyahu's swan song has come (in fact, I started thinking like this seven or eight years ago, but that's not important).
Otherwise, the more I read your essays, the more I find that I disagree with. Strange, right? Actually, no. And in mathematics, you can come to the same result by performing different actions.
I don't think that you and I confuse cause and effect, it's just that our views are different, despite the fact that we come to the same conclusion. And that's okay too.
One can reason at length and consider each discrepancy, but I will focus on a couple of the main differences that I consider important (and believe me, I found quite a few of them, and I can substantiate each one).
All your justifications for Netanyahu's time being over are based on the fact that the Netanyahu government is "bad". In my opinion, the Netanyahu government is no different from other governments and is pursuing the same policies, is stuck in the same traps and is forced to repeat the same mistakes as any other that was or could be.
Netanyahu's personal political cunning, his ability to contrast the interests of his opponents, play on their aspirations, ambitions, to pit them against each other and betray them, differ only in that his opponents do it much worse and less talented than he does. I think you will agree with me that Israel does not need this model of behavior in politics, or at least needs another model that opposes this one. For example, the consolidation of Israeli society, not division and opposition..
The main claims that you make against "Netanyahu's Israelis" (in fact, this is a very small interest group, which could be ignored against the general political background, if not for the monstrous manipulations), that is, the status of the Orthodox, the avoidance of the political status of the residents of Judea and Samaria and the "strengthening of Hamas" (in my opinion, it is more correct to call it "pacification"), these are general claims that can be made against any government, both existing and hypothetical, because this is something like "Catch 22", which everyone is trying to solve without trying to change the conditions of the catch.
For example, take the previous government, which did nothing fundamental.
Therefore, I do not expect that even after Netanyahu leaves politics, there will be a qualitative change and a breakthrough, until a new generation of politicians grows up who understand that the rules of the game are outdated, the model of domestic (and foreign) policy is outdated, the approach to changing directions and trends in Israeli politics is outdated.
My main complaint about Netanyahu is that during his rule, he not only failed to prepare a new generation of politicians capable of finding new ways to solve problems, but also established stagnation and staticity in Israeli politics, which was accepted not only by his allies but also by his opponents.
By the way, these models are not some kind of Israeli feature, this is a disease of any democratic state built according to a general scheme with a multi-party system (that is, a majority).
And of course, my view is the view of an amateur who looks at Israeli politics from the height of an ordinary person, so some sides are not visible to me at all, and some are visible much better than to those who are involved in this policy. Therefore, I do not claim that my observations are objective.
Thank you for this - and I actually agree with most if not all you wrote! I too await the day for a new generation of leaders, and hope to help them (us? because this isn't necessarily an age thing but a position thing) shift the system towards a better future.
“Netanyahu allowed the build up of Hamas” and “Netanyahu … continued to support Hamas diplomatically and financially”. These statements must be as shocking to Israelis as Claude Rains, famously saying in Casablanca, "I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!" Is the rest of the world expected to believe that Mr. Netanyahu’s shenanigans were truly brand new information for Israelis? Are Israelis so naive (substitute brainwashed here) that they go through life blithely unaware of their government’s actions throughout history? Mr. Netanyahu is/was not doing anything that would be considered new or different when it comes to Israeli government policy. Israelis must have forgotten that they were one of the primary arms suppliers to Iran in its war against Saddam Hussein. Perhaps the Israeli planned and conducted “Operation Opera” in 1981 against the Iraqi Osirak nuclear reactor also slipped their minds. Not to mention their role in the Iran-Contra affair. Going a little farther back, the USS Liberty’s sinking in 1967 by the Israeli air force killing 37 American navy servicemen must have just been gaslighting by Israel’s enemies along with the 1946 bombing of the King David Hotel. Please, just stop. I would sincerely advise Israelis to take stock of the world around them. It has changed a bit since they last looked. Fewer and fewer people outside of Israel are falling for this age old narrative. It is time that Israelis actually started doing the good that they want to see in the world.
Thank you for reading thus far. I’m a new subscriber and hope to continue reading your substack.
Thank you - yes, unfortunately it is harder for us in Israel to see the imperfections and mistakes along the way. We're working on it, though, at least some of us, and I look forward to your comments and critiques of future pieces!
I couldn’t disagree more with you about Bibi. He’s been the best Prime Minister for Israel.
Without arguing about his merit, I ask you one question. Who would be a better PM?
Thank you Robert, I hear you. 30% of Israelis agree with you. The rest have consistently over the past two years polled that they would like him replaced as Prime Minister. Which is what I’ve cited here as the reasons for why we can expect his Swan Song.
Barring Netanyahu's departure and replacement with a PM far more conscious of Israel's relationships with the rest of the world, Israel will be facing a long-term political defeat that will more than eclipse the seeming military gains it has achieved recently.
One should be clear that whether Zohran Mamdani's NYC Democratic mayoral primary win presents an immediate threat to New York's Jews, it presents an existential challenge to American Jewry. It means there's a better-than-likely chance that whoever wins the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination will do so on an actively anti-Zionist platform. And that will force American Jewry to have to choose between aligning itself with fascism or anti-Zionism.
For this we have Netanyahu to thank.
I agree - this is the piece I've been writing over the past week, and hope to publish soon. Looking forward to hearing what you think about it.
Thank you, Ariel. I always read your essays with interest because they are honest. Your essays are consistent, unbiased and devoid of illusory ideas.
That's why it is always easy for me to understand what you mean, rather than guessing the hidden meanings that many critics of the current government hide behind beautiful words.
I agree with your main message. The time for Netanyahu's swan song has come (in fact, I started thinking like this seven or eight years ago, but that's not important).
Otherwise, the more I read your essays, the more I find that I disagree with. Strange, right? Actually, no. And in mathematics, you can come to the same result by performing different actions.
I don't think that you and I confuse cause and effect, it's just that our views are different, despite the fact that we come to the same conclusion. And that's okay too.
One can reason at length and consider each discrepancy, but I will focus on a couple of the main differences that I consider important (and believe me, I found quite a few of them, and I can substantiate each one).
All your justifications for Netanyahu's time being over are based on the fact that the Netanyahu government is "bad". In my opinion, the Netanyahu government is no different from other governments and is pursuing the same policies, is stuck in the same traps and is forced to repeat the same mistakes as any other that was or could be.
Netanyahu's personal political cunning, his ability to contrast the interests of his opponents, play on their aspirations, ambitions, to pit them against each other and betray them, differ only in that his opponents do it much worse and less talented than he does. I think you will agree with me that Israel does not need this model of behavior in politics, or at least needs another model that opposes this one. For example, the consolidation of Israeli society, not division and opposition..
The main claims that you make against "Netanyahu's Israelis" (in fact, this is a very small interest group, which could be ignored against the general political background, if not for the monstrous manipulations), that is, the status of the Orthodox, the avoidance of the political status of the residents of Judea and Samaria and the "strengthening of Hamas" (in my opinion, it is more correct to call it "pacification"), these are general claims that can be made against any government, both existing and hypothetical, because this is something like "Catch 22", which everyone is trying to solve without trying to change the conditions of the catch.
For example, take the previous government, which did nothing fundamental.
Therefore, I do not expect that even after Netanyahu leaves politics, there will be a qualitative change and a breakthrough, until a new generation of politicians grows up who understand that the rules of the game are outdated, the model of domestic (and foreign) policy is outdated, the approach to changing directions and trends in Israeli politics is outdated.
My main complaint about Netanyahu is that during his rule, he not only failed to prepare a new generation of politicians capable of finding new ways to solve problems, but also established stagnation and staticity in Israeli politics, which was accepted not only by his allies but also by his opponents.
By the way, these models are not some kind of Israeli feature, this is a disease of any democratic state built according to a general scheme with a multi-party system (that is, a majority).
And of course, my view is the view of an amateur who looks at Israeli politics from the height of an ordinary person, so some sides are not visible to me at all, and some are visible much better than to those who are involved in this policy. Therefore, I do not claim that my observations are objective.
Thank you for this - and I actually agree with most if not all you wrote! I too await the day for a new generation of leaders, and hope to help them (us? because this isn't necessarily an age thing but a position thing) shift the system towards a better future.
“Netanyahu allowed the build up of Hamas” and “Netanyahu … continued to support Hamas diplomatically and financially”. These statements must be as shocking to Israelis as Claude Rains, famously saying in Casablanca, "I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!" Is the rest of the world expected to believe that Mr. Netanyahu’s shenanigans were truly brand new information for Israelis? Are Israelis so naive (substitute brainwashed here) that they go through life blithely unaware of their government’s actions throughout history? Mr. Netanyahu is/was not doing anything that would be considered new or different when it comes to Israeli government policy. Israelis must have forgotten that they were one of the primary arms suppliers to Iran in its war against Saddam Hussein. Perhaps the Israeli planned and conducted “Operation Opera” in 1981 against the Iraqi Osirak nuclear reactor also slipped their minds. Not to mention their role in the Iran-Contra affair. Going a little farther back, the USS Liberty’s sinking in 1967 by the Israeli air force killing 37 American navy servicemen must have just been gaslighting by Israel’s enemies along with the 1946 bombing of the King David Hotel. Please, just stop. I would sincerely advise Israelis to take stock of the world around them. It has changed a bit since they last looked. Fewer and fewer people outside of Israel are falling for this age old narrative. It is time that Israelis actually started doing the good that they want to see in the world.
Thank you for reading thus far. I’m a new subscriber and hope to continue reading your substack.
Thank you - yes, unfortunately it is harder for us in Israel to see the imperfections and mistakes along the way. We're working on it, though, at least some of us, and I look forward to your comments and critiques of future pieces!
Great article! Thanks. Here’s hoping!