Time for Netanyahu’s Swan Song
Why winning the Iran War hasn’t convinced Israelis that Netanyahu should continue his rule, and how that could influence his decision to go for a regional agreement
(First published on the Times of Israel)
On the face of it, the drama of the Iran War-within-a-War should have given Benjamin Netanyahu his long-sought vindication. Yet opinion polls conducted this week in Israel have repeatedly shown that Israelis are not convinced. Despite the high approval rating for the war, and a bump in his stature, voters are not expected to grant Netanyahu another candidacy after this term. Which is why, I believe, we should expect to hear Netanyahu’s Swan Song in the coming months.
As Merriam-Webster eloquently explains, “Swans don’t sing. They whistle or trumpet, or in the case of the swan most common in ponds, the mute swan, they only hiss and snort. But according to ancient legend, the swan does sing one beautiful song in its life—just before it dies.” Similarly, the Netanyahu Israelis have known for decades has stuck to a basic pattern: delay. Kick the can down the road. Push off whatever can be pushed off, hoping it will work itself out. Tire out your opponents to force last-minute compromises, or avoid decisions altogether. Americans have a presidential TACO, and we have a BAD Prime Minister: Bibi Always Delays.
The clearest example has been Netanyahu’s avoidance of addressing the status quo concerning the ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) special status in Israeli society, particularly the fact that they receive far more financial support from the State than other citizens with no obligation to serve or work. Over nearly two decades, he kicked that can down the road over half a dozen times. The current “crisis” in the coalition concerning the drafting of Haredim into a military drawn thin by years of a war he has not sought to end is of his making. At no point did he seek to resolve the conflict, and chances are he won’t seek to solve it now.
Another clear example is Netanyahu’s avoidance of addressing the political status of Palestinians under Israeli military rule in Judea and Samaria, and (now, because of the war) Gaza. Despite earlier statements affirming his commitment to the idea of two States, in this government Netanyahu has aligned himself with the Whole of Israel movement. Yet at no point has he addressed what that will look like: will it follow Amb David Friedman’s vision of a Puerto Rico model for Palestine? Or the messianic vision of a new Kingdom of David with Netanyahu as the anointed one, Jews and Arabs living in the land sharing non-rights as docile subjects?
Or another example, for which Israelis will never forgive him: Netanyahu allowed the build-up of Hamas. Despite the repeated wars sparked by Hamas since it took over Gaza in 2007, despite the rockets, tunnels, and Israeli responses that drew international condemnation over the past decade and a half, Netanyahu before October 7, 2023, continued to support Hamas diplomatically and financially. Israel’s current Ministry of Finance reflected Netanyahu’s position best when he called Hamas an “asset” for Netanyahu’s government.
Harder for non-Israelis to understand is that Netanyahu has been delaying the Iranian issue for decades despite speaking about it on nearly every occasion. He regularly told Israelis he was dedicated to ensuring Iran never got the bomb. He bragged about clandestine missions, and winked at us that more was happening, that we could trust him to keep us safe. Israelis want to know, therefore, how it is possible that Iran got to be within days, weeks, from building this same bomb he assured us would never come to be?
Which is why, despite the success of Rising Lion, most Israelis aren’t convinced Netanyahu is the leader that will keep us safe. Most of us can’t forget how his BAD attitude delayed the attack on Hezbollah for months until the risk of exposure led him to pull the trigger, a delay that left tens of thousands of Israelis from the North homeless for over a year. Most of us can’t forgive Netanyahu for continuing the brutal, terrible, overdrawn war in Gaza instead of making a deal with Hamas to release the hostages back in April when he put Rising Lion in motion. Would he have made a deal he could have started to heal the rift cleaved in Israeli society by the hostage crisis, and perhaps even worked to repair our global alliances to drum up more support for the showdown with Iran.
And above all else, most Israelis do not trust Netanyahu when he declares victory, because we all remember the “Sinwar on a Couch” moment after Operation Guardian of the Walls. Too many believe Netanyahu secretly views a nuclear-aspirant Iran as an “asset,” not a threat.
It is very possible that Netanyahu might ignore this popular sentiment, riding high on his fans, and decide to give it another go in the next elections. Yet, while one can say many things about the man, he isn’t stupid. Gaining the 12-13 Knesset seats he would need to win after the adrenaline high has worn off is nearly impossible even for a politician of his skill.
This leads me to conclude that we are about to witness Netanyahu’s Swan Song: a final act of courageous diplomacy and statesmanship, one that cuts against his pattern of indecisiveness in the one area that will enable him to cement his place in history as the Defender of Israel: a regional agreement that normalizes Israel and includes a pathway to a Palestinian State.
I believe the rumors about the deal in the making: the addition of Saudi Arabia and Syria to the Abraham Accords in exchange for ending the Gaza War and concessions on the Palestinian issue. I also believe Netanyahu will decide not to run again in return for having charges against him dropped or, alternatively, a conditional pardon from President Herzog. Such a package deal would enable Netanyahu to take a victory lap before running for President of Israel in 2028. It would free him from another showdown with the Haredim and years of negative press coverage alleging his corruption. It would finally give him the dignified status he believes he deserves.
Israelis like me have waited years for Netanyahu to finally face justice. To be held accountable for the corruption, for the chaos, for the fissures he wrought in Israeli society and the pain and suffering he is responsible for. Yet I believe a regional deal – even if it means dismissing charges against Netanyahu – is the right thing for Israel and the world. Let us hope that, just this once, Netanyahu does not delay.
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I couldn’t disagree more with you about Bibi. He’s been the best Prime Minister for Israel.
Without arguing about his merit, I ask you one question. Who would be a better PM?
Barring Netanyahu's departure and replacement with a PM far more conscious of Israel's relationships with the rest of the world, Israel will be facing a long-term political defeat that will more than eclipse the seeming military gains it has achieved recently.
One should be clear that whether Zohran Mamdani's NYC Democratic mayoral primary win presents an immediate threat to New York's Jews, it presents an existential challenge to American Jewry. It means there's a better-than-likely chance that whoever wins the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination will do so on an actively anti-Zionist platform. And that will force American Jewry to have to choose between aligning itself with fascism or anti-Zionism.
For this we have Netanyahu to thank.