Why Trump Told Israel Don’t
Israelis and our supporters need to recognize we’re living in the Gulf’s world now.
(First published in the Times of Israel; Also available in Hebrew)
Donald J. Trump did not order the American Air Force to carry out precision attacks against Iran’s already degraded nuclear program because of his support for Israel. As hard as it is for Israelis and our supporters to comprehend, that is why he told Israel “Don’t” (respond to Iran’s ceasefire violation). He just isn’t that into us.
Why did he choose to do it? Trump has been consistently loyal to only one party in this conflict for as long as he has operated on the global stage: to the ruling families of the Gulf.
The Gulf monarchies understand Trump. He feels their vibes: gold. Glitz. Princely aura. Planes. It’s dictator chic. They give him the worship only a medieval-style monarchy can provide. That is why he inaugurates each of his presidencies with a trip to Riyadh. Because they can throw him the parade he wanted in DC but couldn’t get.
It is understandable why Israelis might think Trump’s decision to bomb Fordo was out of a desire to help Israel finish the job. We’ve been living through the ongoing trauma of a war started by Iran years ago that flared on October 7 nearly two years ago. We are so deeply encapsulated in our own narrative that we have trouble seeing that Trump, and his team, are living in a wholly different world.
In Trump’s world, Israel is a useful tool to protect the family bank. Israel’s daring, its audaciousness, its ability to adapt and identify opportunities and breakthrough seemingly impossible circumstances is definitely an asset. But never confuse an asset with an ally. To borrow a term from Edward Said, we’re the object in his Orientalist fantasy.
The House of Saud, the Al-Thani, and the six ruling families of the UAE, are a steady stream of capital: investors in his hotels, in his family’s private equity funds, gamblers in his casinos. They’re the main characters in his story. Say what you will about Jewish money, these families have trillions pouring out of the ground and are happy to keep a spigot flowing in Trump’s direction because they know he’ll be good for it. As far as they’re concerned, it is a small price to pay to keep the baddest bully on the block on their side.
And it is no secret that the Gulf wanted Iran’s nuclear program destroyed. This isn’t some conspiracy theory: Amos Harel of Haaretz covered their behind-the-scenes support well. Because one must remember that while Israel’s corrupt and messianic government aspires to annex Gaza, Judea, and Samaria, the Islamic Republic has been on a decades-long crusade against Sunni Islam, occupying multiple Sunni states and seeking to foment civil war in all of them.
Simply put, while Israel couldn’t care less which family rules in Arabia, Iran is a determined imperialist entity who wants to control the Muslim world and expand its revolution to all lands once ruled by Islam. A powerful Israel the Gulf can live with. A nuclear Iran is not. That’s why the Gulf families authorized the American attack to finish what Israel started.
Israelis and their supporters would be wise to avoid the euphoria from our successful 12 days of operations and adjust to this new reality. We must work harder than ever to ensure our tools and intelligence are on the cutting-edge. Our strategic situation is served by closely associating ourselves with the Gulf. We must play the long game and stay clear-eyed about American commitments. Be understanding as to who will influence America’s decisions as to our policies at home and abroad. As Gulf leaders consolidate their gains from this war, we’re in the Gulf’s world now. Israel must learn how to live in it.
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I don't know if this is completely on topic, but Israel has a chance to be a shining light in terms of culture and being supportive of families Israel is (nearly?) the only country in the OECD where fertility is still above replacement level. https://www.oecd.org/en/about/news/press-releases/2024/06/declining-fertility-rates-put-prosperity-of-future-generations-at-risk.html
Because one must remember that while Israel’s corrupt and messianic government aspires to annex Gaza, Judea, and Samaria, the Islamic Republic has been on a decades-long crusade against Sunni Islam, occupying multiple Sunni states and seeking to foment civil war in all of them.🙃🤦